International Journal of Human Capital in Urban Management
Quarterly Publication

Trip pattern of low-density residential area in semi urban industrial cluster: predictive modeling

Document Type : CASE STUDY

Authors

A. Busari 1
J. Oyedepo 2
A. Modupe 3
G. Bamigboye 1
L. Olowu 4
J. Adediran 1
F. Ibikunle 1

1 Department of Civil Engineering, Covenant University Canaanland, Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria

2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria

3 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Landmark University, Omu-Aran, Kwara State, Nigeria

4 Department of Civil Engineering, Yaba College of Technology, Lagos State, Nigeria

https://doi.org/10.22034/ijhcum.2017.02.03.005
Abstract
This research elucidates the trip pattern of the low-density residential zone in a semi-urban industrial cluster of southwestern Nigeria. These sets of dwellers are often times neglected in the transportation planning process with the view that it is not a residential zone. Domiciliary information gathering procedure was employed in the analysis with 0.82 return rates. It was backed up with the focus group discussion method. Data on Frequency of trips, per capita trip, modal choice, and socio-economic and demographic data were collected, collated, and analysed using statistical software. Accordingly, a predictive model was formulated for the trip pattern for the low-density area. This was achieved with the aid of statistical software SPSS version 21.Consequently, the results of the multiple regression models showed that both monthly income and car ownership had a significant positive influence on the work trip while only car ownership positively influences non-work trip.  R2 values of 0.729 and 0.739 were obtained for the descriptive model at 95% confidence level. This established the robustness of the model, the analysis showed that monthly income and car ownership had a significant positive influence on the work trip with an R-square value of 0.729 and 0.739 for work and non-work trip respectively. This indicated that household will embark on more trips with an increase in car ownership and monthly income. However, effective transportation planning and traffic infrastructural development are recommended to meet the demands of the increased number of trips daily.

Graphical Abstract

Trip pattern of low-density residential area in semi urban industrial cluster: predictive modeling

Highlights

  • This research developed a predictive model for the trip pattern of low-density residential zone. The trip pattern of the low-density residential zone in a semi-urban industrial cluster of southwestern Nigeria was assessed. These sets of dwellers are often times neglected in the transportation planning process with the view that it is not a residential zone. Domiciliary information gathering procedure was employed in the analysis with 0.82 return rates. It was backed up with the focus group discussion method.
  • The results of the models developed showed that both monthly income and car ownership had a significant positive influence on the work trip while only car ownership positively influences non-work trip. This will help the government and transport planners on the effective transportation planning required in these zones.

Keywords

Density
Predictive model
Transportation Planning
Trip Pattern
Subjects
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International Journal of Human Capital in Urban Management
Volume 2, Issue 3
Summer 2017
Pages 211-218

  • Receive Date 24 March 2017
  • Revise Date 15 May 2017
  • Accept Date 12 June 2017

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