International Journal of Human Capital in Urban Management

Abstract BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The future of warfare is expected to be increasingly urban. Recent conflicts have demonstrated that cities have become central battlegrounds due to their dense populations, critical infrastructure, and strategic value. Traditional defense mechanisms, such as perimeter fortifications, have proven insufficient against evolving warfare tactics. Despite this growing threat, current urban planning and design practices often prioritize economic and functional aspects, neglecting passive defense measures. To address this gap, this research explores urban planning and design strategies for future cities to enhance their passive defense capabilities, helping them withstand and adapt to enemy attacks while promoting the well-being of their residents.
METHODS: An analysis of the early stages of two ongoing conflicts was conducted to recognize the contemporary behavior of attacks. A literature review was then undertaken to explore peer-reviewed research on passive defense strategies and measures for mitigating these attack behaviors. Based on the findings, planning and design criteria were proposed, and corresponding planning components were identified. Finally, planning and design strategies were developed to enhance the resilience of future cities against potential attacks. The methodology is more qualitative, with references as the basis of analysis and further discussion.
FINDINGS: The study showed that landscape planning and design (22.7%) and urban design (21.3%) were the most frequently identified components in mitigating the effects of attacks.  Urban network planning (17.3%), land use planning (14.7%), and architectural design (14.7%) followed. However, this does not necessarily mean that these components are the most influential in enhancing the passive defense capabilities of future cities, but rather that their impact spans multiple aspects. Additionally, the study highlighted several key strategies for improving the passive defense capabilities of future cities against potential attacks. These include prioritizing naturally protected sites, maintaining low population density, utilizing multiple network patterns and street shapes with T-junctions, implementing an unpredictable polycentric distribution of targets, integrating renewable energy and portable infrastructure solutions, designing homogeneous short blocks with low building density and point-building typology, incorporating low-rise stepped or tapered buildings with rounded corners, centering basements, employing blast-resistant structural systems, and using low-emissive, blast-resistant materials and coatings.
CONCLUSION: Effectively integrating these strategies into future cities requires governments to establish legal frameworks, strengthen interagency coordination, update planning and building codes, mandate passive defense in new construction, incentivize private sector participation, and secure dedicated funding. Moreover, prioritizing citizen education on passive defense, promoting community preparedness, and ensuring effective communication with residents are required.

Abstract The main objective of this research is to determine the role of passive defense in urban crisis management from the perspectives of experts and urban managers Municipality of Tehran- District, 5. In order to carry out the study, an analytical-applied research method and a combination of documentary, descriptive, analytical and case study methods are used. All managers and experts of Tehran’s municipality in the District (n=950) at all divisions and departments constitute the population of this study. 274 samples are selected using simple random sampling method. A researcher-made questionnaire is used as research tool whose validity and reliability are tested based on the views of the research supervisor, advisor, experts and managers of the municipality, and Cronbach's alpha test (a= 0787), respectively. Then, data analysis is performed using SPSS software (v21). According to the research findings, passive defense is effective in reducing damages to cities and application risk, and developing a proper pattern for urban sustainability using experts and managers perspective (p<0.05).