Urban ecology and related environmental concerns
C. Belford; D. Huang; E. Ceesay; Y.N. Ahmed; L. Sanyang; R.H. Jonga
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Climate change is one of the existential threats of modern times, which deserves urgent attention by policymakers. The objective of this paper is to comprehend the impact of climate change on the Gambian economy both in the short and long-run. METHODS: This paper analyses time ...
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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Climate change is one of the existential threats of modern times, which deserves urgent attention by policymakers. The objective of this paper is to comprehend the impact of climate change on the Gambian economy both in the short and long-run. METHODS: This paper analyses time series data from 1969 to 2016. The study incorporated rainfall and temperature as proxies of climate change into the Cobb-Douglas production function. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and the Phillips-Perron stationarity test for unit root found that the growth rate of rainfall is not statistically significant with the Mackinnon approximate p-value for z (t) =0.2306. The first lag is significant at 5% and 10% but has a negative coefficient in the first differential up to the fourth lag. In contrast, the growth rate of temperature is statistically significant with a p-value of 0.0196. FINDING: The findings revealed that human capital growth is not significantly related to economic growth in The Gambia. In the long-run, the growth rates of climate change variables are all statistically significant and associated with a negative impact on economic growth. For the short-run, the lag difference of rainfall against its own lag is statistically significant and has a positive impact on economic growth. The lag difference in the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product is not statistically significantly related to the growth rate of rainfall. CONCLUSION: The Gambia is vulnerable to climate change shocks, consequently climate change will negatively impact economic growth resulting in high unemployment, low productivity, and high poverty rate.
C. Belford; D. Huang; E. Ceesay; Y.N. Ahmed; R.H. Jonga
Abstract
West Africa is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This paper analyzed the impacts of climate change on economic growth in Anglophone West Africa with similar background, during the periods 1969-2016. Five growth model equations have been developed to incorporate climate change variables into ...
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West Africa is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This paper analyzed the impacts of climate change on economic growth in Anglophone West Africa with similar background, during the periods 1969-2016. Five growth model equations have been developed to incorporate climate change variables into the model. Panel data estimations such as the fixed effect model, random effect model and Hausman test were used. The results generated show that four equations required the use of the fixed effect, the agriculture equation model required the use of the random effect model. In the fixed effect models, the results show that the growth of human capital has a negative (-0.08 and -0.23) and significant (0.09* and 0.023*) impact on the growth rate of the services and manufacturing sectors. In Anglophone West African countries, the growth rate of the agriculture sector and temperature are statistically significant (0.008 ** and 0.089*) and have a negative impact (-2.04 and -17.7) on the growth rate of GDP. In the random effect model for agriculture, the growth rate of rainfall has the highest impact on the growth of agriculture in Anglophone West Africa than the impact of temperature on the region. Lack of sufficient rainfall reduces the growth of the agriculture sector. In relative terms, change in rainfall pattern is more harmful to agriculture in comparison to the change in temperature in this region. The consequences of climate change in the region are sluggish economic performance and growth, underdevelopment, poverty, and human misery.
