International Journal of Human Capital in Urban Management

Abstract BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Rapid and disorganized urban expansion in developing countries often leads to severe imbalances in land-use distribution, undermining the core principles of sustainable development. The critical problem lies in the disconnect between strategic master planning and field enforcement, where market-driven growth frequently cannibalizes ecological resources. Focusing on Nasiriyah City, Iraq—a historic urban center facing intense demographic pressures and unregulated commercial growth—this research holds significant importance as it diagnoses institutional zoning deviations using spatial tools, thereby offering a replicable, science-based model for secondary cities facing sustainability deficits. To address these challenges, the primary objective of this study is to evaluate spatial land-use changes from 1990 to 2020. The methodology employs a multi-stage spatial and analytical framework, in which a comparative historical analysis of urban growth phases is conducted using Geographic Information System tools, and the official 2011 international master plan for Modern Nasiriyah is cross-examined against contemporary aerial and field data to detect deviations in zoning compliance. FINDINGS: The spatial analysis revealed structural shifts in Nasiriyah's urban fabric over the past 30 years. Industrial land use increased from 533.5 hectares (44.2%) to 1081.8 hectares (37.4%), shifting primarily to northern zones aligned with dominant wind vectors to protect residential quarters. Conversely, commercial zones experienced massive expansion, growing from 481.3 hectares (39.8%) to 1606.5 hectares (55.6%). This commercial sprawl directly compromised public infrastructure, resulting in a critical deficit of recreational green space, which dropped from 16.0% to a mere 7.0% of the active urban footprint. CONCLUSION: Unregulated commercial growth has severely cannibalized municipal green reserves, highlighting a significant disconnect between master-planning designs and on-the-ground development. To secure a sustainable urban future for Nasiriyah, municipal authorities must urgently implement rigid land-use enforcement, revitalize the Euphrates waterfront corridors, and structurally integrate the surrounding historic tourist clusters—such as the ancient City of Ur and the Mesopotamian Marshes—into the city's primary economic and spatial frameworks.