Document Type: CASE STUDY
Urban architecture, design, development and planning

Urban growth prediction and development pattern using CA-MARKOV and SLEUTH models

Volume 11, Issue 1, Winter 2026, Pages 191-212

https://doi.org/10.22034/IJHCUM.2026.01.12

Sh. R. Jabari, H. Motieyan, A. Samkhaniani

Abstract BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Urbanization and rapid population growth are significant global challenges, especially in cities with outdated planning systems. Effective urban growth models, which utilize historical data, land use patterns, and population dynamics, are essential for predicting future expansion. In Kirkuk, Iraq, urban growth has occurred unregulated due to an outdated master plan, and a new plan has been introduced. However, no local studies have assessed the effectiveness of urban growth models against this plan. This study aims to fill this gap by evaluating urban development in Kirkuk from 1993 to 2023 and forecasting growth to 2037 using remote sensing and Geo-spatial Information System-based models.
METHODS: This research applied two urban growth models: Cellular Automata Markov chain modeling (CA-MARCOV) and SLEUTH, to analyze urban expansion in Kirkuk. Satellite imagery from 1993, 2003, 2013, and 2023 was used for land use classification. The Cellular Automata Markov chain model used transition probability matrices derived from land use data, while the SLEUTH model incorporated urban density, road networks, and slope data for simulations. Both models were tested for accuracy by comparing predicted urban growth for 2023 with actual land use data. The study also used these models to forecast urban expansion for 2037, comparing their predictions with the city’s new master plan.
FINDINGS: The land use classification indicated significant urban growth in Kirkuk, from 41.57 km² in 1993 to 155.5 km² in 2023. The accuracy of the predictions for 202F3 showed that the SLEUTH model achieved 87% accuracy, outperforming the Cellular Automata Markov chain model, which had 76% accuracy. For 2037, the Cellular Automata Markov chain model projected urban growth to 201.43 km², while the SLEUTH model predicted a larger expansion of 219.78 km². The SLEUTH model also excluded water bodies and restricted zones (such as oil fields and airports), which were manually identified, while the Cellular Automata Markov chain model did not account for these exclusions.
CONCLUSION: The SLEUTH model provided more accurate urban growth predictions and was selected for comparison with the new master plan. The results indicated discrepancies between the SLEUTH model’s predictions and the master plan, particularly in areas experiencing rapid growth, suggesting the need for adjustments. The southeastern and southwestern regions showed alignment with the plan. These findings highlight the importance of using accurate urban growth models for sustainable planning in Kirkuk, offering valuable insights for urban development through 2037

Human capital in urban management

Designing star employee retention model

Volume 9, Issue 2, Spring 2024, Pages 357-374

https://doi.org/10.22034/IJHCUM.2024.02.12

M. Alizadeh, S. Ramezanzadeh

Abstract BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Star Employees are high performers who have little chance of staying with an organization unless they can get more value than what they have created. Identifying and keeping star employees is the concern of many organizations today. This research seeks to identify the factors that Retention organizational stars.
METHOD: This research was conducted using a mixed method. First, using the qualitative method of content analysis, the dimensions of the star employee model and their retention techniques were identified, and then confirmed by the structural equation modeling method of the star employee model, and finally, after identifying the star employees, the retention techniques was extracted using the fuzzy Delphi technique. The statistical population of this study consists of Petroleum engineering and development company managers and their subordinate Star employees. To collect data, the purposeful sampling method was used with 8 selected experts through a questionnaire in person.
FINDINGS: Research findings showed that the Star employees are people with six characteristics: performance (β = 0.865, p < 0.01), visibility (β = 0.737, p < 0.01), social capital (β = 0.537, p < 0.01), status (β = 0.891, p < 0.01), creativity (β = 0.905, p < 0.01) and rareness and inimitability (β = 0.913, p < 0.01). Also, 16 indicators were identified as the retention factors of Star employees by fuzzy Delphi method. These factors were classified in the form of two dimensions "focus on the individual/organization" and "short-term/long-term time".
CONCLUSION: Based on the research results, in order to retention star employees, organizations should use different techniques: job design in such a way that there is freedom of action, work independence and flexibility, creating a flexible and creative work environment, creating a flexible and agile organizational structure and to benefit from a learning organization with a suitable social position, so that they can benefit from their capabilities and capacities in realizing organizational goals.

Urban civil engineering and related management issues

Urban planning in light of sustainable development: A case study of Nasiriyah city, Iraq

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 06 August 2026

Gh. Naji, H. H. Joni, M. A. Aljumaili

Abstract BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Rapid and disorganized urban expansion in developing countries often leads to severe imbalances in land-use distribution, undermining the core principles of sustainable development. The critical problem lies in the disconnect between strategic master planning and field enforcement, where market-driven growth frequently cannibalizes ecological resources. Focusing on Nasiriyah City, Iraq—a historic urban center facing intense demographic pressures and unregulated commercial growth—this research holds significant importance as it diagnoses institutional zoning deviations using spatial tools, thereby offering a replicable, science-based model for secondary cities facing sustainability deficits. To address these challenges, the primary objective of this study is to evaluate spatial land-use changes from 1990 to 2020. The methodology employs a multi-stage spatial and analytical framework, in which a comparative historical analysis of urban growth phases is conducted using Geographic Information System tools, and the official 2011 international master plan for Modern Nasiriyah is cross-examined against contemporary aerial and field data to detect deviations in zoning compliance. FINDINGS: The spatial analysis revealed structural shifts in Nasiriyah's urban fabric over the past 30 years. Industrial land use increased from 533.5 hectares (44.2%) to 1081.8 hectares (37.4%), shifting primarily to northern zones aligned with dominant wind vectors to protect residential quarters. Conversely, commercial zones experienced massive expansion, growing from 481.3 hectares (39.8%) to 1606.5 hectares (55.6%). This commercial sprawl directly compromised public infrastructure, resulting in a critical deficit of recreational green space, which dropped from 16.0% to a mere 7.0% of the active urban footprint. CONCLUSION: Unregulated commercial growth has severely cannibalized municipal green reserves, highlighting a significant disconnect between master-planning designs and on-the-ground development. To secure a sustainable urban future for Nasiriyah, municipal authorities must urgently implement rigid land-use enforcement, revitalize the Euphrates waterfront corridors, and structurally integrate the surrounding historic tourist clusters—such as the ancient City of Ur and the Mesopotamian Marshes—into the city's primary economic and spatial frameworks.

Urban health, safety and environment (HSE)

Assessing sustainable urban development and its factors by using biomass energy

Volume 10, Issue 3, Summer 2025, Pages 513-526

https://doi.org/10.22034/IJHCUM.2025.03.08

A. Jahanbakhsh mashhadi, S. B. Issa-Zadeh, M. C. García González

Abstract BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The reliance on fossil fuels has led to significant environmental pollution, directly impacting public health and making breathing difficult for many. Also, the high density of environmentally damaging gases from fossil fuels in the earth's atmosphere has prevented heat from escaping from the earth's surroundings and intensified greenhouse effects. At the same time, it should be noted that oil and its derivatives are considered valuable national assets of the country, and their non-optimal consumption will cause irreparable losses. As a result, experts have suggested that clean energy must replace fossil fuels to reduce environmental pollutants.
METHODS: This study employs a comprehensive methodology involving library studies, including academic articles and government reports, and then a multi-criteria decision-making analysis based on an analytical network process, a Delphi questionnaire, and the participation of experts to identify the main criteria for sustainable urban development using biomass energy. These criteria include ecological limits, social sustainability and higher quality of life, justice and equality, social profit and loss, renewable energy sources, pollution reduction, and economic progress. The authors used the Analytic network process method and Super Decisions software to rank these criteria.
FINDINGS: Based on the Super Decisions program, social benefits and losses have equal weight and are 1.0, the highest ranking. Ecological constraints are ranked second, with a weight of 0.787998. Social sustainability weighs 0.787509, placing third. Justice and equality weigh 0.455988, ranking fourth. This indicates that the principles of sustainable urban development are important and successful, as assessed by this study.
CONCLUSION: This study emphasizes the importance of developing biomass energy in Iran, particularly in Mashhad, to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, enhance social sustainability, and improve environmental health. Despite Iran’s potential in biogas production, the abundance of fossil fuels and lack of a unified authority have hindered progress. The research identifies key factors for sustainable urban development through biomass, such as social sustainability, ecological limits, and justice. Future research should include field studies, policy analyses, and economic assessments to create a more comprehensive framework for biomass energy development in Iran.

Sustainable urban infrastructure

A case study on the barriers to achieving a sustainable smart city

Volume 10, Issue 3, Summer 2025, Pages 527-550

https://doi.org/10.22034/IJHCUM.2025.03.09

D. Padi, C. Thangavelu

Abstract BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Doha, Qatar, is committed to becoming a Sustainable Smart City as part of its Qatar National Vision 2030. This transformation is vital for bolstering regional economic resilience, advancing environmental sustainability, and promoting smart governance. Despite growing global interest in Sustainable Smart Cities, limited research specifically addresses Doha’s unique challenges in this domain. Understanding these barriers is essential for informed policymaking and effective urban planning. This study seeks to identify and evaluate the primary obstacles impeding Doha's Sustainable Smart City development, with a focus on economic, technological, social, governance, environmental, and regulatory dimensions.
METHODS: A mixed-methods approach was used to analyze barriers to Sustainable Smart City development in Doha. The study began with a literature review to establish a theoretical foundation and identify global and regional challenges. This was enriched by qualitative input from Qatari stakeholders, including urban planners, policymakers, technology experts, and public-private sector representatives. Partial Least Squares Path Modelling was then employed to prioritize barriers by evaluating their impact on Sustainable Smart City progress. This approach combined theoretical insights with practical, context-specific expertise for a robust analysis.
FINDINGS:  This research identifies key barriers to Doha's transition into a Sustainable Smart City: economic (25%), technological (20%), social (20%), governance (15%), regulatory (10%), and environmental (10%). Economic barriers, particularly high infrastructure costs, are the most significant, followed by technological readiness and social awareness. Governance issues, characterized by bureaucratic inefficiencies, complicate development, while regulatory barriers stem from outdated policies. Environmental challenges, including climate-related issues like water scarcity, further hinder progress. Compared to Abu Dhabi, Doha lags in regulatory frameworks (Doha 3, Abu Dhabi 4), public awareness (Doha 2.5, Abu Dhabi 3.5), and technological infrastructure (Doha 2.8, Abu Dhabi 4.2). Addressing these barriers through tailored strategies is essential for advancing Doha's Sustainable Smart City vision and enhancing public participation.
CONCLUSION: To address these challenges, the study recommends fostering public-private partnerships to secure funding, developing Sustainable Smart city-specific regulations to improve governance, and launching awareness campaigns to enhance community participation. Targeted investments in advanced technological infrastructure and streamlined coordination among governing bodies are also crucial. By implementing these strategies, Doha can overcome its challenges and achieve its vision of becoming a sustainable smart city aligned with its Qatar National Vision 2030.
 

Human capital in urban management

Designing a human resource management model to satisfy the tribes (case study: Iran Nomads Affairs Organization)

Volume 10, Issue 3, Summer 2025, Pages 551-564

https://doi.org/10.22034/IJHCUM.2025.03.10

A. Hosseinkhani Asl, N. Jazani, J. Mehrabi

Abstract BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The current research aims to design a desirable model of human resource management to attract the satisfaction of tribes and provide a descriptive model that illustrates how the functions of human resource management are formed through various processes such as recruitment, promotion, performance evaluation, service compensation, and enhancing the capabilities of managers and employees in the organization of Iranian tribes with a customer-oriented approach.
METHODS: First, the dimensions of the concept of human resource management with a customer-oriented approach were extracted through reviewing documents, materials, and library studies. Then, the most important dimensions and influential factors were identified through interviews with 18 experts using a judgmental sampling method.
FINDINGS: The result of qualitative data analysis included 2 concepts, 9 dimensions, and 64 components presented and explained as a model. The desirable model of human resource management aiming to attract the satisfaction of tribes consists of 9 dimensions (organizing theme) in the form of two comprehensive themes, strategies, processes, and functions of human resources (human resource supply, training and development, service compensation, job analysis, and performance management) and organizational direction (customer-oriented organizational strategy, customer-oriented organizational structure, customer-oriented organizational culture, and two-way communication channels) was designed.
CONCLUSION: Based on the research findings, to attract the satisfaction of the tribal community and improve communication with the tribal leaders, focusing solely on the human resource system is not sufficient. Instead, all aspects of the human resource environment should be aligned with the functions of human resources and the orientation of tribal leaders.